Newsletter Archive - 2022

November 1, 2022

Usually people worry about elections and their effect on the markets, although that seems overshadowed this year by the other problems we’re dealing with. Most believe that if their party wins, everything will be great, but if the other side wins, life will end as we know it. While it’s understandable to want to have the country be run by the people whose beliefs align with our own, fortunately, who runs the country has traditionally had little effect on the markets. ...

September 27, 2022

Last quarter was disappointing to say the least. In my last article, When Will it End?, I was hopeful that the S&P 500 index being down by at least 1% for four days in a row early in June might mark a bit of capitulation – the last bit of strong selling that tends to happen before markets recover. ...

August 26, 2022

It’s likely few if any of you actually heard Jay Powell’s (Chairman of the Federal Reserve) speech Friday morning from the Federal Reserve’s Symposium at Jackson Hole.  If you want an idea of what to expect from inflation, the economy and probably the stock market over the next six months to perhaps a year though, you might find the 10 minutes necessary to listen to his comments to be worthwhile. ...

June 28, 2022

“When will it end?” That’s the question on everyone’s mind about the recent market unpleasantness. I’ll start with the correct answer, “No one knows for sure and anyone who says they do is lying.” However, using market history as a guide, we do think the end might be in sight. ...

April 7, 2022

In my last newsletter article, We Didn't Start the Fire, I discussed how current events always give us something to fear, and the market is volatile because of it. The point of the article that I didn’t directly state, but will state now, is that this is normal. It doesn’t make it any easier to deal with, but it's normal. ...

March 19, 2022

I’m going to let Aaron write our quarterly market-focused newsletter again since he did such a good job last time.  But it is the tail-end of a difficult tax season, and I want to say something to all you taxpayers out there ...

March 1, 2022

You are used to hearing from me at the beginning of each quarter, providing my recap of what has happened and, to some degree, my prognostications of what is likely to come next.  I had a lot going on in my personal life at the end of last year and wasn’t able to find the time or the motivation to “elucidate” on what was a fairly unexciting market at the time.  Aaron picked up the slack for me and put out a letter of his own, which was very well received.  And also very timely, as it turns out. ...

January 24, 2022

In September of 1989, Billy Joel released his hit single “We Didn’t Start the Fire”. The idea stemmed from a conversation that Joel had with a friend who said how terrible it currently is and how life was better “back then”. So, in the lyrics, Joel lists out 118 major events that occurred just during his life up to that point. ...