Industry Viewpoints

March 27, 2023

A cursory read of this article might leave an impression of a partisan attack on President Biden.  We believe such a viewpoint would both demonstrate an underappreciation of the issue discussed, as well as a misreading of the points made.

Yes Biden is failing to lead on this important issue, but Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell are equally culpable, as is virtually every other member of the legislature.

Both parties almost certainly recognize the critical point we are at with regard to the future viability of these programs, but neither is willing to consider difficult but necessary reform.  Our children should never forgive us for the mess we are leaving behind for them to deal with.

June 15, 2022

When it comes to retirement planning, we tend to focus on the financial aspects.  "Can I afford to retire, and will my investments support me through life?" Our "Focus on Retirement Planning" article leans in that direction.

But there is another aspect to retirement that people tend to not think too much about: "Who am I and what will I do with my time?". After the initial fun of not having to go to work wears off, retirement can feel like waiting around to die if you do not have purpose - something besides work to get you out of bed in the morning.

This article discusses that and some things you can think about to help create a more fulfilling retirement.

January 25, 2022

This is a good companion piece to our recent newsletter article. What we are experiencing now is normal, but feels less so because it hasn't happened as often recently as it has in the past. Due to the recent, above average bull market, we could see lower returns in the future, but very few are expecting prolonged negative returns. According to the article, the market is up annually 72% of the time, but that also means it has a down year 28% of the time. So, being down is rare, but still expected.

March 18, 2021

This article speaks for itself.  The author obviously has an optimistic outlook for the immediate future and we share that view.

January 25, 2021

Byron Wien is one of the most level headed and insightful people in our industry.  It goes without saying (although we always have to say it) that predicting the future is obviously an inexact science.  That said, this article will give you an idea of one man’s views of what 2021 may look like  It’s worth noting that the potentially most consequential events typically don’t show up in these kinds of articles.   It’s not what you expect that creates the biggest risks, it’s the unexpected.  Our purpose in “retweeting” this article is neither to alarm or sedate.  There is nothing in this article that, were it to occur, would either create any long-term risk to your financial security, or change your life for the better.  You know our charter – to, as well as we are able, be ready for anything.   Read and enjoy.

December 4, 2020

Many people get rich quick by selling systems on how to get rich quick, not by following their own advice. There are all sorts of newsletters and websites out there that sell access to “stock picks” and other ideas and boast about how well they did. If that was true, why are the selling it?  We get questions all the time, “Have you read, or do you follow such-and-such an advisor, talking head or newsletter?”  In my experience the vast majority of all those newsletters that show up unbidden in your inbox or mail box are designed to do one thing … sell more newsletters.  At DFS Advisors, we invest in the same investments, products, and strategies that we recommend for our clients.  We encourage you not just to do as we say, but rather to DO AS WE DO!  If WE are making money, then YOU are making money.

May 5, 2020

I usually like to offer a thought or comment or two of my own to set the stage for these op-ed articles that we post, but I’m not entirely sure how I feel about this one so I’m going to let it speak entirely for itself.  It places an old topic – government deficit spending -  in what may be an entirely new light for me, and I need some time to think about it.  Perhaps you and I can share thoughts next time we meet.

March 31, 2020

When our typically fast-paced world slows down to a crawl, we can sometimes feel lost. People long for "the good ole days" when "life was simpler", but when it's thrust upon us, we don't know what to do. While people still have the internet, television, streaming, social media, etc to help pass the time, there is only so much of that we can do before the need to connect with people in person takes over. Virtual reality is a poor substitute for reality reality. But, we are resilient and will make it through this. We'll look back and remember the misery, the boredom, the people hoarding toilet paper, and add it to the list of other trials and tribulations we survived.

March 25, 2020

This is a great, easy-to-read article that discusses what to do with regard to investing in times like these. If you already read our latest newsletter article, Coronavirus (Again), you will not see anything surprising. Investing cash sitting on the sidelines and repositioning portfolios are great ways to take advantage of investments that are deeply discounted to what they were just a month or so ago. The economic outlook is still cloudy, so we may not have seen the bottom and we may see more short-term losses from here. However, we do expect a global recovery and so continuing investing through this difficult time can be paramount to the long term success of your plan.

February 22, 2020

We have been saying this about bonds for some time so it's nice to share an opinion with the Oracle of Omaha. Low interest rates lower the costs of borrowing so along with a business friendly tax environment, businesses thrive and their stock values tend to reflect that over the long term. Also, low interest rates cause bonds to underperform due to low coupon payments and/or loss of value when rates rise. For more of our thoughts on bonds, please see our Focus article: Why Not Bonds (Again)?.

September 9, 2019

There are no words …

To the surprise of anyone who knows me, this one has me speechless.  And not because I don’t have an opinion on the subject, quite the contrary.  I agree with the writer on some points, and disagree on others.  Our opinions will always differ, but the fact that a former Federal Reserve Bank governor would write an article of this nature is a severe break in decorum for an institution that prides itself on decorum.

Fact is, everyone has an opinion on the President, and they are not malleable (informed choice of this word, look it up).  We have all made up our minds.  So I’m not going to take the risk of alienating 50% of my client base, 100% of whom I love dearly.  Rather I will let this article, and the ones to which it refers and links, speak for themselves, and encourage you to make up your own mind.

Regardless of where you stand on the President, his person, his policies or his politics, or the economic issues discussed in this article, I believe you will find the issues discussed involve new perspectives and viewpoints which perhaps are not being fully considered or appreciated by any of us, regardless of which side of those issues we find ourselves.

April 16, 2019

Normally we write a brief statement about any article we post here telling why we posted it and our opinion on the topic presented. However, this article warranted a longer piece, so please see our latest newsletter titled The Tax Savings and Jobs Act for more information and commentary.

March 8, 2019

Moving to a lower tax state has long been a major consideration in a retirement plan.  As this article mentions, however, the pace of “tax flight” has increased, and with it, the aggressiveness of many states in chasing down and persecuting if not prosecuting those they think are gaming the system.  Two key take-aways here from my perspective:  First, make sure your move is really a move (take the dog with you, buy a cemetery plot and hire a dentist), and THEN count the days.  Second, don’t count on the fact that New York is the only state to fear.  My suspicion is that CA, CT, NJ, IL and a lot of others are taking notes if not teaching tactics to tax collectors elsewhere.

October 25, 2018

Once again you may be asking, “what does this have to do with financial planning?” In my opinion, quite a lot actually.

The current market turmoil, in many ways, is business as usual. 10 to 15% corrections are normal, healthy even, and to be expected. The fact that we are having our second one this year is a bit troublesome perhaps, but still not worthy of panic.

The timing in juxtaposition with the elections, however, is not a coincidence. A correction of this magnitude at a time when the economy is humming along demands a better explanation than “normal market dynamics”. Market performance ultimately is a reflection of consumer and investor confidence, and it’s really hard to be confident when folks from one end of the political spectrum to the other are telling us how bad things are without giving us any workable solutions.

I’m sure the political noise is not the only factor in this week’s volatility, seasonality is an issue as well. For some reason these things tend to happen in September and October. But I guaran-damn-tee you it ain’t helping any.

August 6, 2018

This is finally an objective view of the so-called "trade war". Despite claims to the contrary, our foreign trading partners are not the free-traders that they claim to be; the United States has been on the losing end of protectionist tariffs for years. While one may disagree with the means the president is using, fixing the trade imbalance is an important step toward the future of our economic well-being.

August 3, 2018

I do not know Mark Bertolini’s political affiliation, or what his personal preference would be with regard to what health insurance should look like. I think it’s safe to say, however, as the chairman of one of our largest health insurance companies, he has a vested interest in the continued viability of private insurance plans. I believe him to be informed and, ultimately to have a balanced viewpoint on the outlook for health insurance in the American marketplace.

In my opinion, we are on a waypoint of a trek, the ultimate destination of which is a single-payer system (i.e., nationalized, socialized health care delivery … “Medicare for All”). I have said for years, there is no going back. The only question is whether we are walking, running or sliding, but I believe the path is definitely downhill from here. My take-away from this article is that the Republicans would be well served to drop their rhetoric about “repeal and replace” because it ain’t gonna happen. (Or, if it does, the unintended consequences are not going to be desirable for the vast majority of my readers.) The best we can and should hope for is to stabilize the current system – call it “repair and revise” if you want, because the only acceptable replacement will need to be one acceptable to the beneficiaries of the current system.

Bertolini’s comments provide an insider’s observations in broad strokes of what is necessary to stabilize the current system. Congress’ (both sides of the aisle) and the President’s continued demagoguery on this subject is totally counter-productive to fixing the current system, and only plays into the hands of those whose end game is a fully nationalized single-payer system.

June 19, 2017

Social Security is Complicated: Although this article is aimed at advisors, it is a good read for anyone. Social Security is based on a complex set of laws, run by a large, entrenched, and often detached bureaucracy.  Like any other governmental program, there are a lot of rules and regulations that most people are not fully aware of, often including, unfortunately, the folks charged with interpreting and administering those rules. This article provides an overview of some of the more important aspects of Social Security which are commonly misunderstood and/or overlooked by individuals in their planning for retirement.

January 9, 2017

Affordable Care Act Reform: I share the viewpoint expressed in this article that the Republicans may be getting ahead of themselves by repealing Obamacare before they have a firm, workable plan for it’s replacement.  IMHO, there is too much toothpaste out of the tube for us to go back to the system that preexisted the Affordable Care Act.  Virtually everyone agrees that some elements of the ACA must survive and others that are worth keeping while there is probably not much agreement on what exactly those elements are.  The risk to the Republicans, however, is that the replacement turns out to be no more workable, or no more popular to the masses than Obamacare, but the new plan becomes known as Trump/Ryan/McConnellcare.  Whatever the replacement plan looks like, the Republicans own it. The 2018 midterm elections will be heavily influenced by the success or failure of the Trump game plan.  But health insurance policy effects everyone, and ACA reform, for better or worse, has the potential to outweigh any successes or failures in just about any other initiative.

August 26, 2016

"Are people filing fraudulent tax returns a real problem that I need to worry about?"  One would like to think that this is a minor nuisance, but unfortunately, this is a $6 billion per year problem that the IRS has yet to solve. This crime could happen to anyone, and when it does, it is a long, difficult process to correct with the IRS. Fortunately, there are some precautions that you can take to help lessen the chance that it will happen to you. This article discusses the problem and lists a few steps you can take to help decrease the likelihood that you will be a victim. We especially want to remind you that the IRS will not call or email you, so don't even consider responding to those.

August 16, 2016

“Should I use my retirement savings to tide me over through a tough spot?”  This is a question we hear often. The generally accepted answer is a resounding no. This article addresses the subject very well.

June 22, 2016

Social Security to run dry by 2034?  Elsewhere in this section is an encouraging article for retirees, suggesting that pension and investment funds may go further in retirement than conventional wisdom might suggest.  This article, on the other hand calls into question the long range efficacy of the Social Security Old Age fund.  This is not a case of “crying wolf”.  While different analyses project shorter or longer life expectancies of the Social Security Trust Fund, there is no debate that some form of repair is absolutely necessary.  The longer it is put off, the more radical the required changes will have to be.  Higher taxes, lower benefits, later retirement, all must be considered.  But bottom line … it’s a fiscal issue which must be addressed in a bi-partisan, or better yet, apolitical manner.

June 1, 2016

Will your retirement income resources be adequate for your needs?  This commentator offers a viewpoint which I have held for quite some time, but which is not widely supported across the industry.  Long-range financial planning is by necessity, a cautious and conservative endeavor as small divergences can have outsized affects over longer periods of time.  It is encouraging to know, however, that not everyone sees the long-range prognosis as so overwhelmingly daunting.  Every case is different, of course, and these views need to be properly applied in the context of your own situation.